Summary: Hc6_The Turbulence Of Politics

Read the summary and the most important questions on HC6_The Turbulence of Politics

• 1 Civil wars

• 1.1 Definition

• What are civil wars?

  Armmed combats WITHIN the boundaries of a recognized sovereign entity
  
  Two parties: 
  

  • One party at the side of the recognized authority
  • Other party at the side of organized militaries   

• When did civil wars start to dominate over interstate wars?

  Since WWII civil wars have started to dominate over interstate wars.

• 1.2 Why do they happen

• How come that interstate wars have heavily declined?

  • International arbitrage (UN, ...)
    
  • International conflicts can be solved peacefully: for example - where do national waters end, where do international waters begin?

• 1.2.1.1 The theory

• When ethnicities overthrow each other, and there is no 3rd party rbitrator that inforces rule of law, what happens?

  Uncertainty about the other group
  
  

  • There comes a game theoretical perspective: renegade on peace deals - each group builds defences, defence capabilities can look threatening (safety dilemma).  

• Ethnic secessionism happens when the majority ethnic group overthrows all minority ethnic groups. What will the minorities do?

  Go away: ethnic federation, confederation, independence ...
  
  

  • Majority ethnic group rarely wants to have less territory: they want to keep it, even if it takes using force!  

• 1.2.1.2 The anecdotal evidence

• Give some anecdotal evidences for the IR-scholar view on civil wars and ethnic heterogeneity

  1. Civil war in Levanon
     
  2. Break-up of Yugoslavia: secession

• 1.2.1.3 The systematic evidence

• Is the ethnic fractionalization index (ELF) significant for explaining civil wars?

  No, the ELF is insignificant.

• Is ethnic polarization, and also define it, significant for explaining civil wars?

  Yes, a limited number of large ethnic groups are highly significant for civil wars. However, we don't know where the causal direction goes to.

• 1.2.1.5 Hungarians in Central- and East-Europe

• The Austria-Hungarian empire was on the losing end of WWI. Common instance of eastern-Europe. What happened?

  The territorial borders don't coincide with the ethnic borders --> this fuels resentment: we see with Russia for example that they want to get their lands back, but are taking more land.

• 1.2.2 Economic school

• Which three factors fuel civil wars, mostly in poor countries, according to the economic school?

  Valuable resources in poor countries
  

  • Greedy rebels
  • Inequality and hopes for personal gains: you will be more likely to join a secessionis movement in prospects of you gaining a better life.
  • Greedy outsiders: to come and steal your resources <=> unity in country to gain for that instability!